The Coalition risks losing votes over its superannuation policies, according to Roy Morgan Research.
The 2016 Budget includes measures targeting high superannuation balances – particularly a $1.6 million Transfer Balance Cap limiting the amount of superannuation in pension phase.
According to Roy Morgan 65.5% of people with over $1 million in superannuation vote for the Coalition.
46.8% of people with between $150,000 and $1 million in superannuation are also Coalition voters.
“The proposed changes to superannuation in the budget have the potential to negatively impact these two groups which together comprise more than one in three (37.2%) L-NP voters with superannuation,” said Roy Morgan.
Only among people with less than $50,000 of superannuation does voting intention directly favour the ALP – with 32.7% versus 28.6% to the Coalition. 38.2% of people with between $50,000 and $150,000 intend to vote for the Coalition compared to 31.3% for the ALP.
“This research shows that the government faces the risk of losing some L-NP supporters, who currently dominate not only the $1 million-plus group, but all super balances over $150,000,” said Norman Morris, Roy Morgan’s Industry Communications Director.
“Although most publicity and detail has naturally centred on the proposed budget changes to superannuation, the ALP have indicated that they would tax income from super above $75,000 pa, and it is uncertain what other changes are planned. With a long time to run before the election, both parties will need to come up with their final superannuation details in order for the voters to decide,” he said.
According to a recent Essential poll 62% of people surveyed approve of “capping tax concessions for those with more than $1.6 million in superannuation,” with 21% disapproving.
However the AFR is reporting a poll indicating only 38% support for the $1.6 million Transfer Balance Cap and 33% support for the $500,000 lifetime Non-Concessional contributions cap.